Reuters Poll: China Home Prices to Fall 3.5% in 2026, Edge Up 0.3% in 2027

China’s home prices are expected to decline 3.5% in 2026, an improvement from the 4.0% drop forecast in March, and to rise 0.3% in 2027, according to a Reuters poll of property analysts released May 29, 2026. The sector remains under pressure but may be transitioning to a slower adjustment phase, with prices projected to climb 1.8% in 2028. Fitch Ratings’ Lulu Shi said the housing market contraction will persist this year but gradually ease as policy support continues and new-home sales volumes approach sustainable levels. Several cities have rolled out incentives following Beijing’s push to limit new projects and reduce inventory. Shenzhen eased home-purchase curbs in core districts in late April, while Guangzhou introduced buyer subsidies. Property investment is forecast to slump 12.0% in 2026, deeper than the 10.3% decline seen in March, and sales are expected to fall 8.3%. Analysts said weak household confidence in jobs and incomes continues to weigh on demand. Policy aims to stabilize the market and prevent a disorderly slowdown rather than deliver forceful stimulus, with S&P Global (China) Ratings noting authorities have room to increase support if needed.