Rising Diesel Costs Threaten Further Truckload Capacity Exits in Q4

Spot linehaul rates are running more than 40% above year-ago levels, yet the average carrier's operating margin remains far below the last upcycle peak — a gap RXO says could push more trucks out of the market in the fourth quarter as diesel costs squeeze both consumers and carrier profitability. Corey Klujsza, VP of Pricing and Procurement at RXO, told FreightWaves the freight market entered Q3 with spot rates nearing all-time highs around July 4, 2026, before cooling on mini-bid activity that re-rated contract lanes. He attributed the softening to volume shifting from spot to contract rather than a demand collapse, while acknowledging underlying consumer demand is weakening on elevated fuel and food prices. The Cass Freight Shipment Index posted its first year-over-year positive print in roughly 40 to 42 months in August, a potential signal of tightening for-hire demand. Klujsza expects 2027 contract bids to reflect double-digit year-over-year increases, and said shippers are consolidating carrier networks amid heightened fraud and compliance risk.