UPS, West Coast Port Labor Contracts to Expire in 2028, Raising Dual Strike Risk

The International Longshore and Warehouse Union's contract with the Pacific Maritime Association expires July 1, 2028, one month before UPS's five-year master contract with the Teamsters ends — a convergence unions say will amplify leverage during peak holiday shipping season. "We can't think of a better bad idea" than simultaneously halting the largest U.S. logistics company and West Coast ports, Teamsters President Sean O'Brien said on his Aug. 5 podcast. West Coast ports handle 37.2% of U.S. containerized import tonnage and 9% of GDP, per the PMA. UPS moves over 16 million packages daily, about 17% of domestic parcel volume, representing an estimated 5% to 6% of GDP. Retailers could front-load imports and warehouse goods if talks stall by spring 2028, but parcels are more real-time, limiting contingency options. FedEx and other carriers could absorb some diverted volume but face capacity constraints. The talks also coincide with the 2028 presidential election, raising pressure on the White House to intervene. Shippers should plan for potential simultaneous disruptions.