10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 10-Month High as Inflation Data Pushes Fed Hike Odds Higher

U.S. Treasury yields rose to 10-month highs on May 13, 2026, after hotter-than-expected inflation data lifted expectations that the Federal Reserve could delay rate cuts or raise rates later in 2026. The 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) climbed to 4.48%, nearing the key 4.5% level and reaching its highest point since July 2025. The 30-year yield (^TYX) moved back above 5%, while the 5-year yield (^FVX) edged up to 4.14%. Bond yields have risen 2% to 4% over the past five days, implying lower bond prices. Wholesale inflation accelerated in April 2026, with the Producer Price Index rising 6% from a year earlier, following a stronger-than-expected Consumer Price Index report released May 12, 2026. CME Group’s FedWatch tool showed markets pricing a 36% chance of a Fed rate hike by December 2026, up from about 16% a week earlier.