BLS January Jobs Report: January 4, 2026; Key Revisions Could Cut Prior Gains

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the January 2026 jobs report at 8:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday, February 3, 2026. The report will include the annual benchmark revision and statistical model updates that could significantly revise prior months' gains. Economists anticipate about 75,000 new jobs in January and a 4.4% unemployment rate, down from roughly 50,000 average monthly gains in 2025. Key factors include seasonal weather impacts, an aging population and reduced immigration, and firms shifting investments to AI and equipment. The preliminary annual benchmark for April–March 2024 estimated a 911,000 undercount, or roughly 76,000 per month, and a final downward adjustment of about 700,000 is expected. These revisions reflect declining survey response rates, disruptions to the birth-death model from the pandemic, and measurement gaps in immigration.