CBO Projects US Debt to Reach 116% of GDP by 2035 as Deficit Outlook Worsens

The Congressional Budget Office's latest 10-year budget outlook paints a significantly darker fiscal picture than its previous forecast, with the national debt projected to reach $53.1 trillion by 2035. The Supreme Court's recent ruling invalidating key Trump administration tariffs further undermines revenue projections that had already been insufficient to offset planned tax cuts and spending increases. The CBO estimates the Trump 2025 Reconciliation Act, known as the "One Big Beautiful Bill," will increase deficits by $3.4 trillion through 2035, rising to $4.1 trillion when accounting for immigration enforcement impacts and additional interest costs. The report projects the annual deficit will reach $2.96 trillion, or 6.2% of GDP, by 2035—nearly double the pre-pandemic average. Interest expense remains the fastest-growing budget category, projected to hit $2.2 trillion by 2036 under alternative scenarios, nearly equaling total discretionary spending. The CBO forecasts GDP growth of 2.2% for fiscal 2026 before moderating to 1.8% annually, citing labor force constraints from aging demographics and tighter immigration enforcement.