China April Data Seen Showing K-Shaped Growth as Exports Outpace Consumption

China’s April activity data, due May 18, 2026, is expected to show industrial output rising far faster than consumer spending, underscoring a two-speed economy supported by exports while domestic demand remains weak. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect retail sales to rise 1.9% from a year earlier, after a 1.7% gain in March, one of the weakest non-pandemic starts to a year. Industrial production is forecast to increase 6%, up from 5.7% in March and the strongest pace since September. Exports previously reported for April rose 14.1%, helped by demand for semiconductors, computers, AI-related goods and renewable-energy products. Citigroup economists said China’s “K-shaped divergence” likely extended into April, with buoyant production contrasting with sluggish household demand. Fixed-asset investment is forecast to rise 1.7% in the first four months, matching March’s pace, as property and infrastructure activity remain soft. Beijing has so far avoided major new stimulus, with strong exports reducing pressure for immediate policy easing.