Consumer Confidence to Be Tested in February: Key Retail and Refund Dates (US)

U.S. consumer spending remains under scrutiny as flat December retail sales suggest a potential cooldown. A severe winter storm in late January sharply depressed mall traffic, with outlet visits down 13% and apparel traffic off more than 8% year-over-year. However, early February traffic rebounded: indoor malls up +7% and open-air centers +8%. Positive signs include January household card spending rising 2.6% YoY, with the drag from the storm主要集中 in the South, lower Midwest and Northeast. Concerns grow over a potential "K" shape in income-driven spending, with sticky inflation, higher utility costs and concentrated hiring in elder care and construction weighing on affordability. This week’s barometer includes Valentine’s Day (Jan 21) and Presidents’ Day sales (Jan 22–23), with tax refunds—potentially 25% higher this year due to 2025 legislation—arriving. Larger refunds may boost savings or current spending, and the coming weeks will reveal household financial resilience and willingness to spend.