Jan CPI Report (02-16) to Test Whether Inflation Trend Was a Mirage

January Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, released Friday, February 16, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET, will test whether recent inflation trends were a mirage. The report, delayed by a government shutdown, comes after core CPI fell to 2.7% in December from a 2025 high of 3.0%. Economists expect headline and core CPI to rise in January, with the Dow Jones survey forecasting an annual rate of 2.5% and a 0.3% month-over-month increase. Wells Fargo anticipates core inflation to climb 0.33% MoM, higher than its 12-month average of 0.22%, citing delayed pass-through of tariff costs and start-of-year price resets. The January jobs report, revised down to 181,000 from 584,000, adds pressure to the Federal Reserve’s decision-making as it balances price stability and employment. Most analysts project no interest-rate cuts until late summer at the earliest.