Japan Averts Recession with 0.2% Q4 Growth, Exports Fall 1.1%

Japan narrowly avoided a technical recession in Q4 2025, posting a 0.2% annualized growth rate as private consumption rose 0.4%. Exports declined 1.1%, weighed by U.S. tariffs under President Trump, offsetting modest domestic gains. Full-year GDP expanded 1.1%, following a 0.7% contraction in Q3 (revised 2.3% annualized). Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, after a landslide election win, plans stimulus measures including suspending the food sales tax. The BOJ maintains rates at a 30-year high of 0.75%, with markets awaiting further policy signals.