Macro Outlook: US Jan Non-Farm and CPI Today; AI Sector Volatility; Japan Election Impacts Yen and Yields

[Para 1: The Lead] U.S. economic data delayed by the government shutdown will be released today, with the January nonfarm payrolls and consumer price index (CPI) scheduled for consecutive reports. The Japanese House of Representatives election on Sunday introduces significant macro uncertainty, influencing the yen and Japanese government bonds, with potential spillover to global markets. [Para 2: Supporting Details & Context] The January nonfarm payrolls report is scheduled for Wednesday, with a Reuters survey estimating 70,000新增 jobs. Enterprise layoffs announced in January rose sharply, while the Federal Reserve maintains inflation is still "elevated." The CPI will be released on Thursday and remains a key gauge for assessing timing of potential further Fed rate cuts in June. [Para 3: Supporting Details & Context] Software and AI stocks face heavy selling pressure as investors reassess winners and losers in the AI-driven economy. The S&P 500 Software & Services index has fallen about 15% in a little more than a week, amid财报不及预期 and concerns over structural threats to legacy business models. AI infrastructure providers are相对较抗跌, but valuations are near all-time highs, prompting caution. The Japan House of Representatives election on Sunday will test安倍 Shinvis policy momentum and could impact fiscal expansion plans. If the执政联盟prevails, it may deepen market concerns about Japan’s fiscal sustainability, pushing up yields on Japanese government bonds. Yen weakness and speculation of a coordinated intervention with the U.S. add to the volatility.