New York Fed Study: 94% of Trump Tariffs Fall on U.S. Consumers and Firms by 2025

By February 12, 2026, the New York Fed reported that 94% of import duties from President Trump’s 2025 tariffs fell on U.S. consumers and businesses through August 2025, with the pass-through rate dropping to 86% by November. The tariffs added about 0.7 percentage points to U.S. inflation through late 2025, pushing up household furnishings, bedding, and dish prices. The study challenges Trump’s assertion that the burden fell on foreign producers. In a representative example, when exporters did not lower prices, the full tax burden passed through to U.S. importers. While exporters cut prices somewhat and importers absorbed portions, roughly 20% of the tariff burden reached final consumers. The Tax Foundation estimated an average $1,000 per household in 2025 and $1,300 in 2026, making the tariffs the largest U.S. tax increase since 1993.