Mexico Analysts Trim 2026-27 Inflation Forecasts, Raise GDP Growth Estimate

Private sector analysts polled by Mexico's central bank slightly lowered their inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027 while raising their economic growth estimate for 2026, the bank said on October 1, 2026. Analysts now expect annual headline inflation to reach 3.87% in 2026, down from the prior 3.90% estimate, with core inflation at 3.90% versus 3.99% previously. For 2027, headline inflation is seen at 3.82%, down from 3.84%, and core inflation at 3.78% from 3.80%. GDP growth for 2026 was upgraded to 1.40% from 1.30%, while the 2027 forecast held at 1.80%. The median survey of 12 analysts, conducted September 15-28, showed no expected changes to the Bank of Mexico's benchmark interest rate, currently 6.50%, through end-2027.