OECD Lifts 2026 Global Growth Forecast to 2.9% as Economy Absorbs Iran Conflict Energy Shock

The OECD raised its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.9% on Wednesday, up 0.1 percentage point from June, saying the world economy absorbed the energy supply shock from the Middle East conflict better than expected. It trimmed its 2027 forecast by 0.1 point to 3%. The US is now seen growing 2.2% this year, the eurozone 1% and Japan 0.8%, each up 0.2 points. China was unchanged at 4.5%; the G20 is projected to expand 3.1%. Spain leads eurozone forecasts at 2.6%, followed by Germany at 1.1%, Italy at 0.9% and France at 0.4%. The OECD cited ample oil inventories, non-Gulf supply and government support, with AI investment lifting output and trade. Risks include rate hikes to curb energy-driven inflation, G20 headline inflation projected at 4.1%, rising eurozone bond yields, a prolonged war and El Niño harvest shocks.