Social Security Trustees May Miscalculate Birth Rate, Worsening Insolvency Risk

The Social Security Trustees’ economic assumptions may overstate future U.S. birth rates, accelerating the program’s projected insolvency, researchers cautioned on June 2, 2026. An overly optimistic fertility model undercounts the demographic pressure on the trust fund, potentially moving its depletion date years closer. The Trustees’ intermediate scenario assumes a long-term total fertility rate of 2.0 births per woman, but the actual U.S. rate has slumped to 1.6 and remains below replacement level. Lower births shrink the future labor force, eroding payroll tax revenue that finances benefits. If projections were aligned with recent birth trends, the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund’s 2035 exhaustion date could be advanced, analysts said. The miscalculation compounds existing solvency challenges from an aging population. Any revision would intensify demands for legislative action on benefit cuts or revenue increases, with bipartisan proposals still absent.