Strengthening El Niño Lifts Corn, Sugar Prices; Researchers Warn of $10 Trillion Cost

A strengthening El Niño is disrupting global commodity markets, with the World Meteorological Organization expecting the pattern to peak late this year and persist through February 2027 with near certainty. Since late June, corn prices have risen roughly one-third, and sugar is up almost one-quarter since late July. Global food prices hit their highest level since 2022 in August, with grain prices at a three-year high, according to the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization. India is a key pressure point: June rainfall ran 35% below normal, threatening cotton, soybeans, corn and rice. Peru ended its anchovy season early, and jack mackerel and corvina prices have doubled in some markets. Argentina and southern Brazil may benefit from wetter conditions, supporting crops and hydropower. North American insurers could see fewer hurricane claims. A 2023 Science paper estimated $5.7 trillion in losses from the 1997-98 El Niño over five years; one researcher pegs the current event's cost at roughly $10 trillion.