Tomato Prices Surge Nearly 40% in Year Through May 2026 on Tariffs, Weather

Tomato prices rose nearly 40% in the 12 months ended May 2026, the sharpest annual increase since 2021, as import tariffs and extreme weather collided to squeeze supply. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported fresh tomato prices climbed 39.8% year-over-year in May, following a 25% jump in April, pushing grocery inflation higher. Economists attribute the spike to a 21% tariff on Mexican tomatoes imposed in early 2026, which raised costs for a supplier that typically provides more than half of U.S. consumption. Simultaneously, drought in California’s Central Valley and unseasonal flooding in Florida sharply curtailed domestic harvests. Analysts say the combined supply shocks have left processors and retailers scrambling, with little relief expected in the near term as the tariff remains in place and weather volatility persists. The price surge underscores how policy and climate risks are increasingly flowing through to consumer staples.