U.S. 30-Year Yield Holds Above 5% as Markets Price Higher Fed Rate Risk

U.S. Treasury yields climbed as investors increased bets that the Federal Reserve may abandon rate-cut expectations and could consider renewed tightening after Kevin Warsh was confirmed as Fed chair. The 30-year yield held above 5% for a third straight session on May 14, 2026, signaling rising concern that inflation remains too strong. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.46%, about 50 basis points above late-February levels and near its highest since June 2025. The 30-year yield was at 5.03%, after the Treasury sold $25 billion of 30-year bonds on May 13 at a 5.046% high yield, the first auction stop above 5% since 2007. The two-year yield approached 4%, near a one-year high. Recent data intensified the shift: April CPI rose 3.8% from a year earlier, the highest since 2023, while PPI increased 6%, the largest gain since 2022. CME FedWatch data show traders now expect no Fed cuts in 2026, with rate-hike odds rising.