U.S. Tariff Burden: 90% Falls on Domestic Firms and Consumers Despite Administration Claims

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s analysis shows that nearly 90% of President Trump’s 2025 import tariffs were passed on to U.S. consumers and businesses. With the average import tariff reaching 13% in 2025—up from less than 3%—U.S. importers bore 94% of the cost in January–August, and 86% by November. The administration argues foreign producers bear the brunt, citing an op-ed Jan. 30 and touting growth: Q3 GDP rose 4.3%, and January nonfarm payrolls increased by 130,000. The Treasury collected $287 billion in tariffs in 2025, up 192% from 2024. Legal uncertainty looms as the Supreme Court evaluates Trump’s emergency powers basis for tariffs; a ruling against the policy could obligate the government to refund as much as $168 billion to businesses.