US Beef Prices Up 15% Amid Shrinking Cattle Herd and Processing Constraints (BEAT, CPG, TSN)

Beef prices have risen 15% YoY through January 2026, outpacing most grocery categories. The broad beef and veal index climbed 15% in the CPI, with uncooked ground beef hitting a record high. The US cattle herd is the smallest since the early 1950s due to droughts, higher interest rates, and a preference for selling heifers for slaughter, which extends the price pressure into 2028. The average wholesale value of choice beef in 2025 was up 16% YoY, contributing to persistent food inflation and elevated consumer expectations. Tyson Foods has posted consecutive quarterly beef losses since 2024 as meatpackers close beef plants and capacity is curtailed. The White House is increasing competition in beef processing and Argentinian import quotas, but a New World screwworm resurgence halted live cattle shipments from Mexico, and South American imports are not a quick fix. Farmgate costs for equipment, repairs, and land are surging, keeping the industry fragile despite strong rancher profits.