US Jobs Data, Global PMI, and Eurozone Inflation Set to Guide Rate Expectations

Global markets this week will assess key macro releases — US employment data, worldwide PMI surveys, and Eurozone inflation — as investors calibrate Federal Reserve and European Central Bank policy outlooks. The centerpiece is the US May nonfarm payrolls report on June 5, 2026, expected to show 85,000 added jobs and a 4.3% unemployment rate. An above-consensus print above 150,000 would fan rate-hike speculation and economic overheating fears, while a disappointing number might ease tightening bets but stoke recession worries. Supporting labor data — JOLTS, ADP, and weekly jobless claims — will also be scrutinized for wage pressures that officials view as a second-round inflation risk ahead of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first meeting in mid-June. Eurozone May CPI, due June 2, is forecast to accelerate to 3.3% from 3.0%, driven by energy cost spillovers. Markets price a 93% probability the ECB will hike 25 basis points at its June 11 meeting. Meanwhile, global PMI readings will gauge supply-chain distress from the protracted Middle East conflict, with services activity softening as high energy bills curb consumer spending. Australia’s Q1 GDP and an Indian rate decision round out the week’s international calendar. Separately, Broadcom’s earnings will serve as a crucial test for the AI-fueled semiconductor rally.