CFTC Sends White House Rules to Cement Authority Over Prediction Markets

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission submitted two rules to the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs on Sept. 28, aiming to formalize its jurisdiction over event contracts traded on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. A proposed rule (RIN 3038-AF82) would explicitly define "swap" to include event contracts and will proceed to public comment. A second interim final rule (RIN 3038-AF81) would exclude "casino-style gambling products" from that definition and could take effect upon approval. The CFTC classified both as not economically significant; full texts are not yet public. The "swap" designation is central to a jurisdictional dispute. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig has argued the agency's authority is exclusive, placing platforms beyond state gambling regulators. Several states have sued prediction-market operators alleging illegal gambling, and the CFTC has countersued to block that oversight. The rulemaking follows conflicting appeals-court decisions now drawing Supreme Court attention. The CFTC also is investigating former Rep. Adam Kinzinger over Kalshi bets tied to his own pardon, and issued an advisory warning that "mention markets" should be presumed susceptible to manipulation.