Carlyle’s Currie says commodities enter new supercycle as AI strains energy and metals supply

Carlyle Group energy strategist Jeff Currie said May 15, 2026, that commodities are entering a multiyear supercycle, citing AI-driven demand, energy supply shocks and underinvestment in mining as catalysts for a prolonged rally. Currie said Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) are expected to spend more than $700 billion on capital expenditures in 2026, intensifying demand for energy, copper, aluminum and semiconductor-related materials. Goldman Sachs estimates the Iran conflict has removed more than 13.7 million barrels per day from the oil market. Currie also pointed to constrained compute capacity, including CME plans for GPU-rental futures and Cerebras (CBRS) opening 90% above its IPO price on May 14, 2026, as evidence of AI infrastructure stress. He said the world’s top 20 miners are spending 40% less than at the 2012 peak, while deglobalization is tightening supply chains and raising competition for physical resources.