Dollar hits two-week high as stronger U.S. data lift Fed rate-hike bets

The U.S. dollar rose to a two-week high on May 14, 2026, as stronger U.S. economic data and hotter-than-expected inflation readings increased expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep rates higher for longer or raise them again by year-end. The dollar index was at 98.83 in late New York trading, rising for a third straight session. U.S. retail sales increased 0.5% in April, matching forecasts but slowing from 1.6% in March. The core retail sales control group, used in GDP calculations, also rose 0.5%, down from 0.8% the prior month. CME FedWatch showed traders pricing a roughly 42% chance of a Fed rate increase at the December meeting, up from about 33% a day earlier. Technical levels also supported the dollar, with DXY holding above its 200-day moving average at 98.53, though resistance remained near the 50-day moving average at 98.99 and around 99.50.