Flatbed Tender Rejection Rates Surge to 32%, Signaling Potential Manufacturing Recovery

Flatbed tender rejection rates jumped above 32% for only the second time in eight years, signaling potential momentum in U.S. manufacturing activity. The SONAR Flatbed Truckload Volume Index has averaged 18% higher year-over-year since early 2026, while accepted tender volumes rose more than 10%. The Institute for Supply Management's Purchasing Managers' Index reached 52.6 in January, the strongest expansion reading since October 2022. A Supreme Court ruling against the Trump administration's IEEPA tariffs removed a key headwind for freight demand, potentially benefiting flatbed and dry van markets. The Flatbed Truckload Index spot rates climbed 18% year-over-year, tracking closely with tender rejection rates. Unlike the larger dry van market, which remains down year-over-year, flatbed demand reflects manufacturing-related freight with meaningful demand-side growth.