Gas price surge pressures low-income consumers as retail stocks weaken

U.S. gasoline prices have climbed to $4.51 a gallon, up 50% since the Iran conflict began in late February, pressuring lower-income consumers and raising concerns about the durability of U.S. consumer spending. Citi analyst Jon Tower said in a May 13, 2026, note that aggregate purchasing power, after wages and job growth are adjusted for inflation, turned negative in April for consumers earning less than $50,000 annually. Middle-income households earning $50,000 to $70,000 are paying more than $90 a month more for essentials than a year earlier, with more than $75 of that increase occurring in the past two months. AAA data show average regular gasoline prices are up about 40 cents over the past month and $1.36 from a year earlier. Brent crude has approached $117 a barrel amid the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Consumer-exposed stocks including Macy’s (M), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Dollar General (DG) and McDonald’s (MCD) have weakened over the past month.