Global Oil Inventories Near Critical Threshold as Strait of Hormuz Risks Threaten Supply

OECD commercial oil inventories are projected to fall to 842 million barrels by May 2026, approaching an operational minimum that could disrupt global market functioning, according to JPMorgan. The drawdown stems from a potential daily supply shortfall of 14 million barrels amid Strait of Hormuz blockade risks linked to U.S.-Iran tensions. On April 2, 2026, Brent crude rose 7.8% to $109.03 a barrel, while U.S. WTI surged 11.4% to $111.54. JPMorgan analysts noted demand suppression in Asian distillates and jet fuel, while inventory declines remain obscured by shipping delays. Even if the strait reopens, analysts project OECD stocks will require two months to begin replenishing and four months to restore pre-conflict levels. The IEA’s prior forecast of a 4 million barrel daily surplus for 2026 has been erased by conflict-driven consumption.