Goldman says global economy remains resilient after 10-week Hormuz closure

Goldman Sachs said the global economy is under pressure but not in crisis after a 10-week closure of the Strait of Hormuz, citing contained oil prices, demand adjustments and supportive financial conditions. Chief economist Jan Hatzius said in a May 11, 2026, report that elevated prewar crude inventories and expectations of possible U.S. policy intervention have limited the oil-price shock. He also said markets have absorbed part of the energy shortfall through “mild demand destruction,” including China’s faster shift toward renewables and airline cuts to lower-margin routes. Goldman’s base case assumes traffic through Hormuz gradually resumes and the strait fully reopens by June 30, 2026. Under that scenario, Brent crude remains elevated near term but falls toward $90 a barrel by year-end. The bank cut its 12-month U.S. recession probability by 5 percentage points to 25%, citing 2.5% first-quarter private final demand growth and April payroll gains of 115,000. Hatzius warned risks remain above prewar levels as higher gasoline prices, slower wage growth and a 3.6% savings rate pressure consumers.