Hormuz Strait May Reopen in 30 Days Under US-Iran Deal, But Mine Risks and Toll Disputes Linger

Shipping analytics firm Kpler projected Monday that the Strait of Hormuz could gradually reopen over the next month if a US-Iran peace agreement signed June 19, 2026 in Switzerland proceeds as planned. However, conflicting interpretations of toll provisions and naval mine threats may delay the return to normal traffic through the world's busiest oil chokepoint. Kpler analysts forecast daily vessel transits recovering to 40 ships—half the pre-war level of 100—within 30 days of implementation. The reopening follows three phases: First, 118 stranded tankers will exit the Persian Gulf within 15 days. Second, new inbound tankers will increase to 12 per day as shipowners assess mine risks and attack threats. Third, after 60 days, control of the strait remains disputed—Iran's state media claims joint Iran-Oman management with toll collection, while US Vice President JD Vance told CNBC the US expects toll-free passage indefinitely. Frontline CEO Lars Barstad, whose company has five tankers trapped in the gulf, expressed confidence vessels will resume operations quickly. But BIMCO, the global shipping industry body, warned Monday that "mine threats remain deeply concerning" and called the security situation "highly unstable" due to unclear agreement details.