Hormuz Strait shutdown risks broader oil shock as analysts warn inventories are nearing stress levels

A prolonged halt to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could turn a contained oil supply disruption into a global energy crisis, analysts warned, as commercial and strategic inventories shrink and Middle East peace talks remain stalled. Dow Jones Energy executive Jaime Brito said the standoff between the U.S. and Iran could persist, adding that oil markets tighten with each passing week. Swissquote analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya said the world, including G7 economies relying on large reserves, could begin facing oil shortages if the war does not end quickly. JPMorgan analysts said developed-market commercial crude stocks could approach operational stress levels by early June 2026. Estimates of global crude inventories vary widely: Morgan Stanley puts commercial and strategic reserves at about 5.75 billion barrels, Societe Generale at about 7.8 billion and JPMorgan at about 8.2 billion. The International Energy Agency coordinated a 400 million-barrel release from strategic reserves in March 2026. JPMorgan estimates global oil demand fell by 2.8 million barrels per day in March, 4.3 million in April and about 5.5 million in May.