Intermodal Rates Face Upward Pressure as Truckload Tightens, 2026 Outlook Looms

Trucking spot rates, inclusive of fuel, average $2.80 per mile nationally (up 23% Y/Y; SONAR: STRI.USA), while tender rejections hover near 14%, the highest since 2022. In contrast, domestic intermodal spot rates (excluding fuel) stand at $1.39 per mile, down 5% from $1.48 per mile a year ago. The divergence reflects tight trucking capacity driven by carrier exits, driver regulation changes, winter weather, and returning demand in the Rust Belt. As truckload pricing tightens and contract renewals approach, intermodal providers face upward pricing pressure. While intermodal’s structural long-haul economics remain, its pricing advantage is narrowing. Expect intermodal spot discounts to decline and potential double-digit contract increases for trucking by late 2026. Shippers should prepare for renewed rate negotiations and closer monitoring of SONAR indices (NTI.USA, INTRM.USA) and tender rejection trends.