Macro Outlook: AI Lags in Data, Suggests Labor-Empowering, Not Sector-Replacing, as TFP Gains Remain Small

Top economist Torsten Slok of Apollo wrote on February 14, 2026, that macroeconomic data—productivity, employment, inflation—have not reflected the growing presence of AI, mirroring Robert Solow’s observation about the computer revolution. While investors are pricing in AI’s future, recent selloffs hit firms in wealth management, insurance, tax, professional data, legal research, trucking, and logistics. Macroeconomic models project only modest gains: Penn Wharton Budget Model estimates 0.1–0.2 percentage point annual improvements in total factor productivity, translating to about 1.5% by 2035; the Congressional Budget Office projects 0.1 percentage point annual gains and an eventual 1 percentage point output boost by 2036. The Labor Department revised 2025 job gains to 181,000, down from 584,000 initially and from 1.46 million in 2024, suggesting productivity growth may outpace AI-driven gains in the near term. Slok concludes AI is more likely to labor-enhance than replace in broad sectors.