Macro Outlook: CPI Weaker, Fed Cut Outlook Rises as Major Indices Edge Lower

Friday, February 13, 2026 — Major U.S. indices opened slightly lower as investors digested a below-expected U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), tempering inflation expectations and supporting a stronger case for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. While yields on U.S. Treasuries retreated and the 10-year yield fell to 4.08%, broader equity indices posted declines: Dow Jones fell 0.21% to 49,349.70, S&P 500 down 0.03% to 6,830.99, and Nasdaq Composite down 0.28% to 22,533.82. The Fed remains on pause, with a potential 25-basis-point cut in July and possibly once more by year-end. Key data: Jan CPI y/y 2.4% (vs 2.5% expected), core CPI y/y 2.5% (vs 2.5% expected), and nonfarm payrolls up by their largest margin in over a year with the unemployment rate unexpectedly lower.