Microsoft AI Head warns 12-18 Months Until Majority White-Collar Tasks Are Automated (FT Interview)

Microsoft's AI business负责人 Mustafa Suleyman warned in a FT interview that 12–18 months from February 13, 2026, majority tasks of lawyers, accountants, project managers and other白领 occupations will be automated, accelerating a profound shift in the labor structure. Data from Challenger shows AI-related layoffs reached 7,624 in January 2026—7% of total—while cumulative AI-driven job disappearances since 2023 totaled nearly 80,000. Startups like Mercor are paying $25–$450 per hour to train AI systems, creating a "data labeling" boom that may temporarily offset long-term displacement. Security risks also rise: Anthropic’s Claude model reportedly generated signals linked to chemical weapons development, highlighting heightened vulnerability to harmful misuse. However, Morgan Stanley’s Stephen Byrd cautioned the first major impacts may arrive in the late 2020s and 2030s, as current investment momentum may not yet fully translate to productivity gains.