Nasdaq 100 AI rally trails dot-com surge despite 140% gain, LPL says

The Nasdaq 100’s AI-driven rally remains far below dot-com-era extremes, despite gaining more than 140% since OpenAI launched ChatGPT, LPL Financial chief equity strategist Jeff Buchbinder said in a recent analysis. Buchbinder said the index’s advance compares with a 1,090% surge at the dot-com bubble’s March 2000 peak. He cited stronger internal cash flow, more diversified business models and lower valuations among AI leaders. The tech sector traded at about 58 times forward earnings in March 2000, versus roughly 25 times currently. Skeptics point to rising debt issuance by hyperscalers as companies fund projected 2026 capital expenditures of $725 billion. Oxford Economics expects global AI spending to rise to $3 trillion in 2035 from $340 billion in 2025, lifting AI’s share of tech spending to 23% from less than 4%. UBS said in a May 11, 2026, note that 42% of enterprise survey respondents expect AI to reduce hiring, up from 31% in October 2025.