Oil Prices Rise 1% Ahead of US-Iran Nuclear Talks

Crude oil prices rose on February 16 as traders weighed the impact of advancing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations against potential OPEC+ supply increases starting in April. Brent futures settled up $0.90, or 1.33%, to $68.65 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained $0.86, or 1.37%, to $63.75 at 2:15 p.m. ET; WTI did not set a settlement due to Presidents' Day in the U.S. Trading volumes were subdued as Lunar New Year holidays paused markets in China, South Korea, and Taiwan. Analysts said geopolitical tensions provided a floor for prices. PVM's Tamas Varga noted supply disruption fears continued to underpin risk premiums. Last week, both benchmarks fell: Brent declined about 0.5% and WTI 1%. U.S. and Iranian officials are set to meet in Geneva on February 17, with discussions potentially extending to energy and aviation. SEB sees Brent at $80 if tensions escalate or $60 if they ease. OPEC+ is expected to approve a resumption of production hikes from April at its March 1 meeting, which could cap upside. Meanwhile, Chinese imports of Russian crude in February are forecast to hit a third straight monthly record, offsetting reduced Indian purchases under U.S. pressure. Markets will focus on the Geneva talks, the March 1 OPEC+ meeting, and the EIA's February 19 Weekly Petroleum Inventory Report.