Oil steadies as IEA warns of severe supply shock, OPEC cuts demand outlook

Oil prices were little changed on May 14, 2026, as traders weighed OPEC’s lower demand forecast against escalating Middle East supply risks and disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures for July delivery fell 0.21% to $105.42 a barrel, while June WTI crude slipped 0.16% to $100.87. OPEC cut its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to about 1.2 million barrels per day from 1.4 million barrels per day, citing high prices and geopolitical uncertainty. Supply concerns remained acute. OPEC said April output fell by 1.7 million barrels from March, while production has dropped more than 30% since the Iran war began in late February, equal to about 9.7 million barrels per day. The IEA said on May 13 that more than 14 million barrels per day of supply has been curtailed and Gulf producers have lost more than 1 billion barrels cumulatively. ING said the duration of high prices depends on the Strait of Hormuz and regional infrastructure risks.