Oil Stocks Surge 21% as Analysts See Bullish Outlook for 2026 (XLP +$2.6B Jan ETF Inflows)

Energy stocks have rallied about 21% this year, outpacing all other sectors and prompting a bullish outlook for the rest of 2026. The S&P 500 Energy Select Sector Index (XLP) saw $2.6 billion poured into the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF in January, the most since 2008. Historical data from Bespoke Investment Group and DataTrek Research show that when the energy index outperformed the S&P 500 by at least 20.9 percentage points over 50 days, it continued to outperform for the next 50 days. The sector’s less than 3% weighting in the S&P 500 leaves room for active overweights. The price gains reflect geopolitical tensions around Iran, tighter Russian sanctions, and risks of supply disruptions along key shipping routes.