Option Volatility and Earnings Outlook: February 16-20
Earnings season winds down with key reports from WMT, BABA, NEM, MDT, PANW, DASH, and OXY. Pre-earnings implied volatility typically spikes as options demand rises, then subsides post-release. Expected moves (using at-the-money straddle on nearest expiry): Tue: ET ±3.1%, PANW ±8.3%, MDT ±4.8%, CEG ±5.2% Wed: CVNA ±15.5%, OXY ±4.6%, DASH ±13.3% Thu: BABA ±4.4%, WMT ±5.8%, SO ±2.2%, NEM ±7.5% Fri: None notable Strategies: Bear call spreads outside expected range; bull put spreads or naked puts for bullish views; iron condors for neutral outlooks. Stick to defined-risk trades and small positions. Last week: 9/15 stocks stayed within expected range; 10/15 rallied post-earnings. Notable: HOOD -8.9%, SPOT +14.8%, CSCO -12.3%, VRT +24.5%. Unusual options activity seen in NCLH, AI, MSTR, CVX, UPS, DKNG, and others. Options carry significant risk; perform due diligence.