PitchBook Values Kalshi at Up to $42B as Supreme Court Sports-Betting Case Looms

PitchBook valued prediction market Kalshi at $30.4 billion in a base-case scenario, with a bull case of $42.1 billion and a bear case of $22.8 billion, according to a 46-page initiation report published September 24, 2026. The startup raised a $1 billion Series F in May at a $22 billion valuation, and investors are eyeing an IPO as soon as 2027. PitchBook forecasts Kalshi revenue reaching $6.4 billion by 2030, with $3.7 billion in adjusted earnings, citing partnerships with Robinhood and market maker Susquehanna. Analyst Franco Granda called the industry a two-horse race, saying rivals' window to enter has closed. The outlook hinges on a pending Supreme Court case over whether Kalshi's sports contracts are federally regulated or unlicensed state gambling. Sports and exotic bets accounted for 82.4% of event fees year-to-date. Two appellate courts have split, making review likely next year.