Prediction Markets Clash Over Cardi B's Super Bowl Performance Definition (KALSHI:02-13, POLY:02-13)

Cardi B's appearance during Bad Bunny's Super Bowl LVII halftime show has sparked a legal and interpretive dispute in prediction markets over whether her performance qualified as singing. Kalshi and Polymarket each hosted contracts betting on the question, drawing $47.3M and $10M in trade volume, respectively. Kalshi settled at the last traded price without declaring a winner, paying $0.26 to "Yes" and $0.74 to "No" holders, and faced a CFTC complaint seeking $3,700 in lost proceeds after a "Yes" bet was paid only $1,300 instead of $5,000. Polymarket is scheduled to issue a final decision on February 13. The NFL event attracted about 128 million viewers. Kalshi reported a daily trading high exceeding $1B on the day of the game, up 2,700% from the prior year. Regulators are reviewing sports-event contracts, with CFTC Chairman Michael Selig撤回 a 2024 proposal to ban such contracts amid calls for clarity.