S&P 500’s Eight-Week Rally Stirs Melt-Up Fears, But Historical Data Shows 100% One-Year Win Rate

The S&P 500 extended its winning streak to eight consecutive weeks, the second-longest such run since 1952, fueling debate over whether the market is in a melt-up. However, historical data from Bespoke Investment Group shows that after previous eight-week rallies, the index posted positive returns one year later 100% of the time when the gain exceeded 15%. As of Friday, May 23, the index was up 9.2% in 2026, while forward earnings estimates rose 14.4%, compressing the forward P/E multiple by more than 4%. Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research labeled the trend “fabulous earnings momentum” and hiked his year-end S&P 500 target to 8,250, the highest among major Wall Street firms. Goldman Sachs lifted its target to 8,000. According to Bespoke, after any eight-week win streak, the S&P 500 has been higher six months later 74% of the time and one year later 89% of the time. For streaks with gains of more than 15%, the one-year positive rate rises to 100%, with a median annual return of 17.57%.