S&P 500’s Eight-Week Winning Streak Fuels Melt-Up Talk, but Analyst Sees Earnings-Led Rally

The S&P 500’s longest weekly winning run since 2023 is stirring fears of an irrational melt-up, yet bullish strategists argue the rally is backed by accelerating corporate profits that are expanding faster than share prices. The index has risen for eight consecutive weeks through May 26, 2026, its second-strongest such streak since 1952, according to Bespoke Investment Group. It closed at 7,519.12, about 6.5% below the 8,000 milestone that eToro analyst Bret Kenwell says is achievable absent a Strait of Hormuz closure. The index is up 9.2% year-to-date, while forward earnings estimates have jumped 14.4%, compressing the price-to-earnings ratio by more than 4%. Yardeni Research’s Ed Yardeni raised his year-end target to 8,250, citing “fabulous earnings momentum” rather than fear of missing out. Bespoke’s data show that after similar eight-week surges, the S&P 500 has posted a median 11.25% gain over the following year, with a 89% historical probability of further advances. Recent speculative moves, such as a gamma squeeze in Micron Technology shares, have added to caution, but the broad rally remains tethered to profit upgrades.