SpaceX IPO May Disappoint Day-One Buyers, Historical Data Shows

SpaceX’s expected massive initial public offering could be a trap for retail investors chasing a first-day pop, according to research published on June 5, 2026. Data from 9,000-plus IPOs show 60% of stocks bought at the first-day closing price delivered zero or negative returns after three years. Only 16% of those companies doubled in value over the same period, says University of Florida IPO scholar Jay Ritter, whose study spans 1975 to 2021. The average long-term gain in the IPO market is skewed by a few mega-winners, while most listings underperform. Analysts note that modern IPOs increasingly serve as exit ramps for venture capitalists and early backers rather than as growth-story launchpads. SpaceX has already realized the bulk of its value creation through its dominant rocket-launch business, the Starlink satellite network, and artificial intelligence ventures—all reflected in private-market valuations. “IPO day is rarely the only or best entry point,” said Kathy Donnelly, co-author of *The Lifecycle Trade*, adding that many hot listings fall below their first-day low within three weeks and later surrender early gains.