StanChart says oil premium collapse may reverse as deferred demand returns

Standard Chartered warned that the recent collapse in physical crude premiums may be temporary, as deferred buying, refinery restarts and the end of reserve releases could tighten spot markets again unless the Iran-related supply disruption is resolved. Physical oil premiums have fallen sharply after surging on fears of disrupted Middle East supply. Dated Brent settled just $0.43 a barrel above front-month Brent on May 11, 2026, down $11.31 a barrel week over week. Some physical grades have dropped as much as 90%, StanChart said, citing buyer restraint, inventory drawdowns and increased non-disrupted supply. U.S. crude exports reached a record 6.4 million barrels per day in the week ended April 24, 2026, according to the Energy Information Administration, while combined crude and refined product exports hit 12.9 million bpd. The U.S. also has moved to sell about 53 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as part of a broader international release effort following Middle East disruptions.