Tariff front-loading drives U.S. freight surge as carriers face cash-flow squeeze

U.S. truckload activity has surged since late April 2026 as importers pull goods forward ahead of tariff increases, FreightWaves reported May 13, 2026, warning that the load-board spike reflects temporary front-loading rather than a durable freight recovery. FreightWaves SONAR data showed the National Truckload Index up more than 20% year over year as of mid-May 2026, with flatbed volume nearly 50% above year-earlier levels. The Outbound Tender Rejection Index hovered near 14%, above the 7% to 8% range that typically signals sustained spot-rate pressure. Carriers face a widening rate-to-cash gap. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported diesel at $5.64 a gallon for the week of May 4, 2026, up 54% from $3.65 a year earlier. FreightWaves said that adds about $2,500 per truck per month at 10,000 miles and eight miles per gallon. Tariff-related equipment costs are also rising. ACT Research projects Class 8 truck prices will increase about $10,000 per unit in 2026, while April net orders fell 24% month over month.