Trucking Market Shifts: NTI Rising, OTVI Stabilizing, OTRI Up to 13.4% (2026-02-15)

The freight trucking industry is witnessing a multi-pronged realignment as traditional indicators suggest the prolonged bear phase is ending. The SONAR National Truckload Index (NTI) is at $2.80 per mile, up from the low $2.00s of 2023 and signaling upward momentum. The Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI) is near 10,110, below its historical average of 11,731, but volume collapse has stopped. The Outbound Tender Rejection Index (OTRI) rose to 13.40%, indicating carriers are shifting from contract to spot markets as options improve. Capacity is contracting as the Carrier Details Net Changes in Trucking Authorities (CDNCA) show net exits exceeding entries, with more carriers leaving than entering. TRAC data reflects broader rate strength across lanes, with a blue shade indicating more lanes showing upward momentum than decline. Historically, breakout conditions align when rates stabilize and rise, demand stops falling, and capacity tightens. These three factors are currently converging, suggesting a potential early stage of a market tightening. However, macroeconomic weakness, fuel volatility, and sectorial operational vulnerabilities mean a dip or delay is possible in the next 60–120 days. Investors and operators should remain cautious but monitor the data closely as the next phase of the market cycle may begin.