UBS: AI Disruption Loomes in Lending Markets,预警 Credit Wave by 2026

UBS warns the AI-driven disruption is moving beyond equities, with its Credit Strategy head, Matthew Mish, cautioning leveraged loans and private credit could face systemic stress next. Mish notes accelerated models from Anthropic and OpenAI are pressuring earlier recognition of risk. Under a baseline scenario, UBS projects credit losses in leveraged loans and private credit could rise by 2.5% and 4% through 2026, adding about $75B–$1.2T in new defaults. Leveraged loans are roughly $1.5T, private credit about $2T. A sudden, more severe AI shift could double these impacts, triggering lending freezes and broad re-pricing, highlighting tail-risk implications. Mish divides firms into three categories: foundational model developers, financially sound large software companies, and PE-held, leveraged midsize software and data services firms—last group most likely to face concentrated credit risk.