US Supreme Court to rule on IEEPA tariff authority, $130B at stake

The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule Feb. 20, 2026, on *Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump*, determining if the executive branch overstepped the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs. The decision places approximately $130 billion in tax revenue at risk. Justices expressed skepticism regarding presidential authority to tax without congressional approval. Since early 2025, the U.S. has collected over $260 billion in tariffs. JPMorgan analysts forecast S&P 500 volatility ranging from a 1% decline to a 2% gain following the verdict. While a ruling against the tariffs could trigger complex refunds, analysts warn of potential market overreactions. A final decision may be delayed until Feb. 25, 2026.