Valentine's Day Gifts See 12% Price Surge Amid Inflation and Tariffs, 2026-02-13

Valentine's Day gift prices are projected to rise 12% to an average of $200, up from $188.81 in 2025, according to the National Retail Federation. Since 2021, gift categories have seen double-digit inflation, with chocolate costs up over 70% as supply lags behind falling raw cocoa prices. Higher U.S. tariffs on flowers and packaging, along with a freeze in early 2026, are driving up flower costs, while gold prices exceeding $5,000 per ounce are pushing jewelry prices up 8% from last year to a total spending of $7 billion. Retailers report limited price increases due to weak customer demand and are seeing post-holiday sales drop by about 50%.